Essay --

Before the conquest of Gaul consulship was yet to be decided as the senate were being secured by massive bribery from Marcus Bibulous as a part of an anti- caesarean election although failed to prevent Caesars election. Caesar had than succeeded in organising an irresistible coalition of political bosses which included (Pompey and Crassus) which became the first triumvirate. The alliance was affectively sealed by Pompey marrying Caesars only child Julia. The Gallic war (58-51 BC) was the conflict in which Julius Caesar emerged as a great military leader after an earlier career as a politician. A conflict that began with an attempt to preserve stability on the borders of Roman province Transalpine Gaul soon turned into a war of conquest. Only after putting down three major Gallic revolts. Caesar described Gaul as being split into three sections â€Å"Omniun Gallo in tres partes divisa est†- Commentarri de Bello Gallico. The north east of the country was populated by the Belgae, the centre of the country was inhabited by the Celts and the area beyond the Garonne River was populated by the Aquitani. As Gaul was split up Caesar effectively able to divide and conquer. Rome’s new province was officially called Transalpine Gaul to distinguish it from Cisalpine Gaul in northern Italy. Transalpine Gaul governed separately from Cisalpine Gaul but in 59 BC the governor of Transalpine Gaul died and the province was assigned to Caesar. Cisalpine Gaul also owned by Caesar gave him a military recruiting ground which gave Caesar a springboard for the conquest beyond Romeâ₠¬â„¢s North West frontier. In 58 BC Rome’s northwest frontier, ran from the Alps down the left bank of the upper Rhone River to Pyrenees, skirting the south eastern foot of the Cevennes.... ...and gave the name for the month July. Although it was said the invasions were pre-emptive it is believed they were fought primarily to boost Caesars political career and pay of his massive debts. His achievements over the defeat of Gaul regardless still amazing as the Romans didn’t possess any great superiority in the military equipment over the north European barbarians. The Gallic Calvary was far superior to Rome but Rome’s military superiority lay in its master of strategy in tactics, discipline and military engineering. In Caesars mind his conquest of Gaul was probably carried out as a means to his ultimate end. He was acquiring the military manpower; the plunder and the prestige that he needed to secure a freehand for the prosecution of the task of reorganizing the roman state and the rest of the Greco- Roman world. â€Å"I came, I saw, I conquered†- Julius Caesar.

Ready to Quit Smoking? Essay

Tobacco is the most preventable cause of death in the United States. An estimated 443,000 people prematurely die from smoking cigarettes. It also causes serious illnesses, such as Coronary heart disease, lung cancer, and oral cancer. 46.6 million Americans continue to smoke despite their knowledge of these risks (CDC). How hard is it to quit smoking? Nicotine is in fact one of the most addicting substances in society. Some people say it is extremely difficult. There are many different ways to quit smoking. The most effect yet, most difficult way is complete abstinence from smoking. Other alternatives include, nicotine gum or patches, medication and e-cigarettes. In order to quit smoking one must understand addiction of nicotine and how it affects the body. The human brain has tiny neurotransmitters called dopamine. â€Å"Dopamine is the brain’s primary motivation neurotransmitter (Polito). â€Å" For example, when you are hungry or thirsty and you finally find time to eat or quench your thirst, that overwhelming, satisfactory sensation is caused by the flow of dopamine released from the brain. Nicotine is an external chemical that passes through the blood/brain barrier that stimulates dopamine. Once there is that chemical dependency on nicotine in order for your brain to release dopamine, it becomes and addiction. There are 4 steps in this addiction cycle. First, a person’s blood nicotine level falls. Second, the brain generates a craving by building up and restricting the flow of dopamine. Third, one inhales new nicotine. Fourth, the brain releases dopamine and the cycle continues. Now that one can fully understand the effec ts of nicotine, the next step can be taken. â€Å"Cold Turkey,† the common term used by smokers, means complete abstinence from smoking. To start the quitting process one must first set a date to quit. One should remove all tobacco products from their persona, house, and vehicle. Then they should tell their friends and family that they are  quitting. Also, it is wise to inform their smoking buddies to not smoke around them or offer them any cigarettes. This completes the start process. In the first five days of not smoking, the number of cravings can reach up to 8 cravings. It is tough to power through. However, there is hope. There is something called, â€Å"The 5 D’s to Quitting Smoking.† The first is â€Å"Delay (CoxHealth).† Cravings only last to a maximum number of three minutes per craving. If the smoker can set a timer and wait three minutes the craving will, in fact, go away. However, it will probably feel like the longest three minutes of their life. The second is ,â€Å"Distract yoursel f (CoxHealth).† If the smoker can direct their attention to something else during their craving, they will have a greater chance of fighting their withdrawals. Perhaps playing a sport, running, or watching television can help distract them from their mental obsession. The third â€Å"D† is, â€Å"Drink water (CoxHealth).† Staying hydrated is essential to fight cravings. Water is good for the body and helps ease the physical withdrawals. The fourth is, â€Å"Deep breathes (CoxHealth).† This refers to meditation and breathing exercises, such as circular breathing. Circular breathing is where one inhales for three seconds, holds their breath for 3 seconds, exhales for three seconds, and then holding that for 3 seconds before inhaling again. The last â€Å"D† is, â€Å" Discuss your feelings (CoxHealth).† These are the fundamental principles to quitting smoking cold turkey. However, there are other ways to quit smoking. Nicotine gum and nicotine patches seem to work just as well as cold turkey. It is a substitute, but it does help stop the habit of inhaling harmful smoke into the lungs. When prescribed these, â€Å"Crutches,† there is a set of instructions that the smoker should follow. They start at a high milligram dosage, then every week the doses become smaller and smaller. It is effective but extremely expensive. Medication can also be prescribed buy doctors. Scientists have come up with a special pill that makes a person sick from smoking a cigarette. It’s a form of negative reinforcement that makes a person not want to smoke because it makes them sick. This is probably not the best way to quit because is extremely expensive. Quitting this way does not yield a long-term effect. It  is only a temporary means to completely quit smoking. Electronic cigarettes are not as expensive but it is still a substitute. These e-cigarettes do tend to break easily and the cartridges need to be replaced every so often, which may become expensive over a long period of time. There is an atomizer in their products the shoot liquid nicotine into the lungs via water vapor. This is not very harmful yet the nicotine addiction remains. When smoking these e-cigarettes there is no real plan to quit. Instead it is just to maintain a healthier lifestyle. Smoking is by far the worst and hardest habit to stop. It is expensive and creates harmful repercussions. Cold turkey is probably the best way to quit due to the fact that it is natural and inexpensive. However, it is not the only way to stop smoking. Alternatives like nicotine gum and patches, medication, and electronic cigarettes effectively stop the habit of smoking. In retrospect these seem to be temporary unless following a solid plan to completely stop. There can be no definite way to stop smoking. The choice is still always up to the person who wants to quit smoking, where will power plays an important role to smashing this horrible habit completely. Work Cited CDC. â€Å"Tobacco Use.† Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 16 Nov. 2012. Web. 22 Feb. 2014. CoxHealth. â€Å"The 5 Ds to Quitting Smoking.† CoxHealth. CoxHealth, n.d. Web. Polito, John R. â€Å"Tobacco Company Deception Aboutchemical Addiction to Nicotine.†Nicotine Addiction 101. Nicotine Cessation Educator, n.d. Web. 18 Feb. 2014. â€Å"Using the Nicotine Patch, Nicotine Gum, Nicotine Nasal Spray or Nicotine Inhaler.† – American Family Physician. N.p., 1 June 2001. Web. 24 Feb. 2014. Nordqvist, Christian. â€Å"Electronic Cigarettes Can Harm The Lungs.† Medical News Today. MediLexicon International, 3 Sept. 2012. Web. 23 Feb. 2014.

Auteur Theory : Darren Aronofsky Essay

Translated from the French, auteur simply means â€Å"author†. There have been varied perceptions regarding this theory, its importance and effectiveness. Auteur theory is essentially â€Å"a method of evaluating films based on the director’s involvement and input†. The concept of ‘Auteur’ was first introduced by Francois Truffaut in 1954 in A Certain Tendency in French Cinema. (1) In this work he claimed that film is a great medium for expressing the personal ideas of the director. He suggested that this meant that the director should therefore be regarded as an auteur. According to him, there are three forms in which a director may be regarded as an Auteur. He agreed with Andre Basin’s idea that the film must be the direct expression of the director’s vision. The second aspect was that the director must be skilled with the camera. He believed the director is to camera as the writer is to pen. Lastly he believed for a director to be considered as an Auteur, he must leave behind a distinctive signature (based on Alexander Astruc’s idea), visually or as an idea in the film. (2) Years later, this concept was reintroduced by Andrew Sarris in 1962, in a publication titled â€Å"Notes on Auteur theory† (3). Accordingly, for a director to be considered as an auteur, the director must be well versed with the technical aspects of the film. The director must have a distinct style or a signature that distinguishes his films from the others. The movies must have a theme, an inner meaning. The auteur theory has been receiving widespread criticism since the 60’s. It was argued that one person cannot control all aspects of the film. A film is a conglomeration of the efforts of lots of people. Despite this it is found to be very useful as the starting point of interpretation of some films. Auteur Theory suggests that the best films will bear their maker’s ‘signature’, which may manifest itself as the stamp of his or her individual personality or perhaps even focus on recurring themes within the body of work. (4) Keeping the concepts of the theory in mind, one can safely conclude that if the three criteria have been satisfied, the director may be considered the auteur of the film, these criteria being recurrent style, theme and visuals. Moving on to the discussion of the topic at hand, can the director of Black Swan, Darren Aronofsky be considered as an auteur? Black Swan is his fifth film as a director. All of his films share a similar theme. They all deal with an addiction in some form, the protagonist is always the one addicted. The movie shows the protagonist realizing his/her addiction, and there by degrading their personal life. ‘Black Swan’ and ‘The Wrestler’, share a single minded professionalism in the pursuit of a career, leading to the destruction of personal lives. (5) Aronofsky has had a lot of inspiration from different films, art forms and in general, all his films have an inherent trace of impending psychosis. However through the course of his five films one would see his stories delve more and more into the human psyche. With Requiem for a dream, it began as a drug addiction, a hallucination induced by drugs. In The Wrestler, he simply shows persistence, a plain disregard for anything but wrestling. Though this does not show psychosis, it clearly lights up the explosive nature of his pursuit. In some ways, this may be seen as a form of addiction too. In Black Swan, the main character is portrayed as one with OCD (Obsessive Compulsive Disorder). As the movie progresses, the psychosis of the protagonist progresses further, she begins to hallucinate and she draws parallels between her life and the ballad she is performing (the swan lake ballad). As a director, there are a lot of similarities in his films. There is always a sense of accomplishment accompanied by sense of impending doom, a tragedy as the price for the success seen earlier. One of the characters (usually the protagonist) always dies or suffers some sort of major personal tragedy. He is also greatly influenced by Stanley Kubrick, David Lynch, Roman Polanski, Satoshi Kon, Shinya Tsukamoto, Alfred Hitchcock, Spike Lee, Federico Fellini, and Jim Jarmusch. The Wrestler and Black Swan share a great resemblance to Satoshi Kon’s Perfect Blue. Though the similarities were acknowledged, Aronofsky denied it being an inspiration. (7) Perfect Blue ( Pafekuto Buru? ) is a 1997 Japanese animated psychological thriller film directed by Satoshi Kon and written by Kon and Sadayuki Murai based on the novel of the same name by Yoshikazu Takeuchi. (8) Mima Kirigoe (the protagonist) who is a member of a Japanese pop-idol group called â€Å"CHAM! † decides to pursue her career as an actress. Some of her fans are displeased with her sudden career change, particularly a stalker named Me-Mania. As her new career proceeds, Mima’s world becomes increasingly noir. Reality and fantasy spiral out of control. Shortly after leaving CHAM! , Mima receives an anonymous fax calling her a traitor. Mima finds a website called â€Å"Mima’s Room† that has public diary discussing her life in great detail. She confides in her manager Rumi Hidaka, a former pop star herself, about the site, however, she is advised to just ignore it. Othe set of Double Bind, Mima succeeds in getting a larger part. The producers have agreed to give her a leading role, however as a rape victim in a strip club. Despite Rumi’s warning that it would ruin her reputation, Mima accepts the part voluntarily. Though it is apparent that Mima is indecisive, the atmosphere of the scene traumatizes her so that she increasingly becomes unable to separate reality from fantasy. She can no longer distinguish her real life from her work. She becomes paranoid. Consequently people who had been involved in tarnishing Mima’s reputation are murdered and Mima finds evidence which makes her appear as the prime suspect. Her increasing mental instability makes her doubt her own innocence. It turns out that the diarist of â€Å"Mima’s Room† is delusional and very manipulative, and that an intense folie a deux has been in play. The faux diarist (and murderer) believes that she is Mima who is forever young and graceful, has made a scapegoat of stalker Me-Mania. Mima knocks Me-Mania unconscious with a hammer when he attempts to rape her, and runs to her only support she has left alive, her manager Rumi. When Mima encounters Rumi, however, her manager is wearing a replica of Mima’s CHAM! Costume and crazily singing Mima’s pop songs. Rumi is in fact the false diarist, who believes she is the â€Å"real Mima†. Rumi is angry that Mima has been ruining the â€Å"real Mima’s† reputation, and decides to save â€Å"Mima’s† pristine pop idol image through the same means she has been using all along: murder. Mima manages to incapacitate Rumi after a chase through the city despite being wounded. Rumi remains permanently delusional and institutionalized. Mima has grown from her experiences and has moved on with her life with new found independence and confidence. One finds a striking similarity between the two storylines, if one were to imagine Mima as the White Swan – the pure innocent Nina Sayers, and Rumi as the Black Swan – the violent, sensual and dangerous psychosis of Nina. There are too many similarities between the storylines. In both cases, during the fight between the two characters (For the sake of this argument, let us assume the black swan and white swan as separate. ) The antihero of the story attacks the protagonist. In both cases the protagonist is wounded in the abdomen (almost in the same area – around the liver). In both cases, the protagonist continues their bidding after being wounded. Nina finishes the dance while Mima goes around the city in a chase. In both cases, the protagonist is affected by the job, and they receive threatening messages. Nina sees Whore while Mima receives the fax calling her a traitor. If one were to delve deeper, one even sees the similarity in the naming of characters (however this argument is based sole on conjuncture and lacks credibility. ) Despite this there is an immense similarity between the story line and the character sketches. Due to the overbearing nature of the similarity I find it hard to accept that Black Swan is not influenced by Perfect Blue. The inspiration may not have been intentional; however, the similarity is too much to be dismissed as coincidence. In this light such an undeniable similarity between the two films disqualifies Darren Aronofsky from being an auteur. Black Swan also draws heavily on what is called the Doppelganger effect and the split personality. These woven into a maze of mirror motif is the central theme throughout the film. This is a strategy which is well-known in classical Hollywood cinema such as precisely ‘The Red Shoes’. 10) This being said this film has Aronofsky’s stamp all over it. There is a great similarity between the characters ‘The Ram’ and ‘Nina Sayers’. In his own words†¦ â€Å"They are both artists who use their body Age threatens them Physical injury threatens them They only have their hands to express themselves. †(9) In all of his films, the sets have a sense of belonging. The props used are bare minimum. Only those strictly necessary are used. His set design is simple precise yet he somehow manages to bring a sense of belonging, a nativity to his sets. For example in the Black Swan recital, the set was simple, yet it somehow added to the elegance and grandeur bringing with it a certain ethereal quality with it. Another notable trait in his films is his music. Black Swan marks the fifth consecutive collaboration between Aronofsky and Clint Mansell. In all his films, music is exploited as a medium to dramatize the situation. The editing is also pertinent to the music. This relationship between the editing and BG score is most successfully exploited in Requiem for a Dream which gained acclaim for its hip-hop style editing. His attention to detail is yet another endearing stamp. For example, in the opening scene of Black Swan, the change in the tutu indicating the change in emotion is subtle almost not noticeable, yet one feels the emotion without really seeing it. The small stiff (classical pancake) tutu, for the innocent cheery bit, the long flowing (romantic) tutu for poised elegance and a graceful waltz, and, the shorter (platter) tutu, for the transition into Black Swan. Also if one were to notice keenly, one would see that almost every scene of Nina alone in the film will also include a mirror reflecting Nina in some angle. Aronofsky has made great use of this to exploit the two mindedness of Nina’s psychosis. In all respects of style, editing and mise-ene-scene Aronofsky has distinctly made his mark on all five films. In an interview, Aronofsky, says he was deeply influenced by the roller coaster Cyclone, and that he has adopted that intense structure, which keeps the audience on the edge, in his films. He aims to thrill the audience and amuse them with his films. (9) This, he certainly has achieved in his films.

Time series analysis

Time series analysis Free Online Research Papers We are pleased to submit the following report on the â€Å"Time Series Analysis†. By completing the report, we have got acquainted importance and relevance of time series on business application. We also perceived idea on the whole process of Time Series Analysis. We acquired knowledge about the method of measuring trend, growth rate, acceleration rate etc. In spite of limitation of time opportunity we have tried our level best to complete the report. We are pleased to provide you with this report with necessary analysis, references and we shall be available for any clarification, if required. Thank you for assigning us in this study. On behalf of the group Md. Arif Hasan ID: 12-150 Table of Contents Serial No Topic Page No 1 Letter of Transmittal 1 2 Rationale of the study 2 3 Objectives of the report 3 4 Methodology of the report 3 5 What is Time Series 4 6 Uses of Time Series in Business 5 7 Components of a Time Series 5 8 Classical Time Series Model 9 9 Methods of trend measurement 9 10 Least squares method 10 11 The Growth Rate 14 12 The Acceleration Rate 15 13 Rule of 72 16 14 Bibliography 17 Rationale of the study Having been assigned to prepare a report on Time Series Analysis we are submitting the term paper based on our findings and understandings. Time series analysis has vast application and is of huge importance in the field of Business and Economics as well as in decision making thereof. Calculating secular trend we can know whether unit sales or revenues of a particular Business organization are increasing, decreasing or remaining constant over time. Cyclical variation affords us to track the rise and fall of a time series over a longer period of time. It helps us to realize the different stages the organization is going through over time such as prosperity, depression, recession, recovery etc. Seasonal variation helps us to clarify in which particular period of time within a year the Business is making good sales or decreasing sales. Using last square method we can derive a trend equation which dictates us at what particular amount the Business is increasing or decreasing its sales over time. Calculation of Growth Rate makes us understand at what percentage the Business sales are increasing or decreasing over time and Acceleration Rate lets us know whether the Growth Rate will increase or decrease at an increasing or decreasing rate in the successive years. In our report, we have identified described all the components and elements of Time Series Analysis, The Classical Time Series Model, and different methods of measuring trend, application of the Least Square Method and process to calculate growth rate and acceleration rate and their effect on the business thereof. Necessary graphs and charts have also been attached with an exclusive interpretation of the Rule of 72 in the final part of the report. Objectives of the Report ? Defining the Time Series Analysis. ? Distinguishing between Time Series Data and Cross-section Data. ? Identifying the elements of Time Series Analysis. ? Developing the Classical Time Series Model. ? Describing the various components of Time Series Analysis. ? Erecting graphical figures for the components of the Time Series Analysis. ? Identifying different methods of measuring Trend. ? Applying the Least Square Method in practical problems. ? Calculating Growth Rate and Acceleration Rate and describing their effect. ? Describing the Rule of 72 and its application in Growth Rate. Methodology of the Report Being permitted we are submitting this report on Time Series Analysis. Due to time and fund constraints we could not collect primary data, so we prepared this report based on secondary data. Resultantly our report completely relies in hypothetical data rather than experimental data. We created a hypothetical business situation that exactly coincides with the real business situation. Time Series: The most popular method of business forecasting is time series analysis. A time series is a collection of observations of well-defined data items obtained through repeated measurements over a period of time- weekly, monthly, quarterly, or yearly. For example, measuring the value of retail sales each month of the year would comprise a time series. This is because sales revenue is well defined, and consistently measured at equally spaced intervals. Data collected irregularly or only once are not time series. Distinguish between Trend and Growth rate: 1. Trend indicates the changes of a variable over a period of time in absolute term i.e., in original unit of measurement (Tk. US $, Kg, etc.) 2. Growth rate indicates the changes in a variable over a period of time in relative term i.e., in % (percentage). 3. If two or more variables are given or expressed in different units of measurements, their changes over a period of time are not comparable using the trend but the changes are comparable using growth rate. 4. In calculating the trend all the figures of a time series are taken into account, while in estimating the growth rate, the figures of base and current periods are considered. Difference between time series data and cross section data: Time Series Data Cross Section Data Data collected arranged on the basis of time are known as time series data. Data on different items given for a specific time period are known as cross-section data. Example Year Profit Beximco Textile (crore tk) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 12 15 17 19 20 22 Example Company (Textile) Profit in 2007 (crore tk) Beximco Textile Square Textile Dandy AllTex Ashraf Textile 22 24 19 17 15 Uses of Time Series in Business Decision-Making: Various uses of time series in Business Decision-Making are follows:- ? To understand future behaviour: Time series analysis is helpful in predicting the future behaviour. By observing data over a period of time, one can easily understand what changes have taken place in the past what will be in future. ? Planning of future operations: Time series analysis is helpful in planning future operations. The greatest potential of a time series lies in predicting an unknown value of the series. For capital investment decisions, decisions regarding production and inventory etc are example of planning future operations. ? Evaluations of current activities: The actual performance can be compared with the expected performance and the cause of variation analyzed. For example, if expected sales for 2007 were 15 lacs T-shirts and the actual sales were only 14 lacs; one can investigate the cause in the shortfall in achievement. ? It facilitates comparison: Various time series are often compared and important decisions are taken. One statistician can not forecast 100 percent accuracy of future events. It is needed to compare different time series in the same topic. Components of a Time Series: The four basic types of variations which account for the changes in the series over a period of time. The four types of patterns, variations or movements are called components or elements of time series. The four components are 1. Secular Trend 2. Seasonal Variation 3. Cyclical Variation 4. Irregular Variation Secular Trend: Secular trend means the smooth, regular, long-term movement of the data. Among four components trend is the most important and influential. The long term trends of sales, employment, stock prices, and other business and economic series follow various patterns. Some move steadily upward, others decline, and still others stay the same over time. For example, the secular trend of the number of employees in Home Depot (from 1993 to 2002) is shown below. How to identify trend: Sudden and irregular movements either in upward or in downward direction will not be known as trend. Classification of trends: Various types of trends are divided under two heads. ? Linear or Straight Line Trends: The linear trend indicates that the increase or decrease of a time series at constant amount. It is the simplest form in describing the trend movement. ? Non Linear Trends: The non-linear trend indicates that a time series may have faster (or slower) increase at early stage and have a slower (or faster increase at more recent times). Seasonal Variation: Seasonal variations are those periodic movements in business activity which occur regularly every year. These variations tend to repeat themselves each year. Almost all businesses tend to have frequent seasonal patterns. For example men’s and boy’s clothing has extremely high sales just prior to Christmas and relatively low sales after Christmas and during the summer. How to identify seasonal variation: ? If the data are given on yearly basis there will be no seasonal basis. ? If the data are given on daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or half-yearly basis then there might be existence of the influence of the seasonal variation. Factors affecting seasonal variation: The factors that cause seasonal variations are: ? Climate and weather conditions: The most important factor causing seasonal variation in the climate and weather conditions such as rainfall, humidity, heat etc. act on different product and industries differently. For example during the winter there is great demand for woolen cloths, whereas in summer cotton clothes have greater sales. ? Customs, traditions habits: Though climate and weather are primarily responsible seasonal variations in time series, customs, traditions and habits also have their impact. For example on certain occasions like Eid, Puja the bank withdrawals go up because people want money for shopping and gifts etc. Cyclical Variation: The rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year. Most of the time series relating economics and business show some kind of cyclical variation. A business cycle consists of four well defined periods or phases, namely prosperity, decline, depression and improvement. For example, the annual unit sale of batteries sold by National Battery from 1984 to 2003 is shown below in the cyclical nature of business. Irregular Variation: Irregular variations refer to such variations in business activity which does not repeat in a definite pattern. Irregular variations are caused by special occurrences like flood, earthquakes, strikes and wars etc. Irregular variations can not be projected into the future. Classification of Irregular Variation: Sometimes irregular variations are subdivided into episodic and residual variations. ? Episodic Variation: Episodic fluctuations are unpredictable, but they can be identified. The initial impact on the economy of a major strike or a war can be identified, but a strike or can not predicted. ? Residual Variation: After the episodic fluctuations have been removed, the remaining variation is called the residual variation. The residual fluctuations are often called chance fluctuations. These are unpredictable and can not be identified. Classical Time Series Model: The model which states that all the components of a time series are in a relationship of multiplicative in nature is known as â€Å"Classical Time Series Model†. Mathematically the model can be written as- Y = T x S x (C x I) Here, Y = Value of the variable or result of the four elements T = Trend S = Seasonal Variation C = Cyclical Variation I = Irregular Variation Methods of trend measurement: Several methods are used in measuring Trend. Some measures the average of the trend and some measures the absolute value. Here we have listed five main methods for measuring the Trend of the Time Series. ? Linear trend measurement 1. The freehand or Graphic method 2. The Semi-average method 3. The Least Squares method ? Non-linear trend measurement 1. The freehand or Graphic method 2. Moving average method Figure: Five methods of measuring Trend Least squares method: The method where time is the independent variable and the value of the time series is the dependent variable is known as the Least Square Method. Here, an equation is developed to estimate future values. It is done by the least square technique. Many researchers suggest that we should not project the future values more than n/2 time periods (where n= number of data points) into the future. Moreover, others suggest the forecast may be for no longer than 2 years, especially in rapidly changing economic times. Here I. (Y YC) = 0 The sum of deviations of the actual values of Y and the computed values of Y is zero. II. (Y YC)2 is the least The sum of the squares of the deviations of the actual and computed values is least from this line. That is why this method is called the method of least squares. The linear trend is represented by the equation Yc = a + bx In spite of these suggestions, the Least Square Method is a very popular and important method for forecasting the future because it finds the best linear relationship between two variables. Besides, it measures the absolute value of the trend. We have also arranged our report on this Least Square Method. For this purpose we have used both the theory and their applications. We have collected the secondary data from a departmental store named Super Value Shop and calculate the data for application purpose. Here the collected data has been presented, Super Value Shop, the agent of Proctor Gamble Bangladesh Ltd. in Dhanmondi, has experienced the following sales revenues in the past 7 years Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sale(lac Tk.) 6 11 19 22 30 35 39 42 45 50 From the data at first we will develop an equation with the least square techniques. The Equation: The equation is- Ye = a + bt Where, Y = dependent variable of the time series a = constant b = trend (slope) t = time period This method is a direct method where- à ¥Y = an + bà ¥t à ¥Yt = aà ¥t + bà ¥t2 Here, a = and b = Now, by using the data of the Super Value Shop we will calculate the equation. For to do so we have to find out the a and b. Year Sales (lac Tk.)y t yt 1998 6 1 6 1 1999 11 2 22 4 2000 19 3 57 9 2001 22 4 88 16 2002 30 5 150 25 2003 35 6 210 36 2004 39 7 273 49 2005 42 8 336 64 2006 45 9 405 81 2007 50 10 500 100 n = 10 299 55 2047 385 So b = a = = = = 3.06 = 4.88 b (Trend) indicates the average amount of change in the variable y due to a unit change in the time period(t). So the equation is – Y = 3.06 + 4.88t This Trend Equation indicates that during the period of 1998 to 2007 sales of the Super Value Shop increased because as an average amount of Tk. 5.679 lac per year. Now by using this trend equation we can forecast the sale of the Super Value Shop. Suppose, we want to forecast the sale of 2010. Y2010 = 3.06 + 4.88 *13 = 66.5 So if the above trend equation holds to until 2010 (if the present trend continues) the sales of the Super Value Shop will stand at Tk. 66.5 lac. The Growth Rate (GR): The rate which indicates the increase of the dependent variable of the time series(Y) within the considering period is known as Growth Rate. For example, the Growth Rate of the Super Value Shop indicates the increase of the rate of sales during the period of 1998 to 2007. Shortly it is noted as GR. GR = Here, n = Total number of Years Yn = Sale of the nth year Y1 = Sale of the 1st year Now by using the data we can find out the increase (GR) of sales of the Super Value Shop. GR = = = 26.56% This GR = 26.56% indicates that during the period of 1998 to 2007 sales of the Super Value Shop increased at an average rate of 26.56% per year. The Acceleration Rate (AR): The rate which indicates how much the growth rate will be decreasing in the years to come or the following (future) years is known as the Acceleration Rate. For example, if the GR = 20% then how much (increased or decreased) it will remain in the following years. Shortly it is noted as AR. AR = Here, Y1 = Sale of 1st year Y2 = Sale of 2nd year Yn = Sale of nth year Yn-1 = Sale of the previous year of nth year Now by using the data we can find out the change (increase or decrease) of GR of the Super Value Shop. AR = = = 6.07% This AR = 6.07% indicates that in the years to come (in future) growth rate of the Super Value Shop will be decreasing at an average rate of 6.07% compared to that of the previous year’s growth rate. So, if the current year GR = 100% (26.56%) then the next year GR = 93.93% (24.95%) of the previous year’s growth rate. This will be continuing until the AR is not changed. Rule of 72: The rule which estimates how much time the current growth rate will take to make the sales doubled is known as the Rule of 72. It is calculated by 72/GR. It is an important rule in case of forecasting or estimating the future. Here we have used a few words to make it clear. If the GR = 1% then it will take 72 years to be doubled. If the GR = 72% then it will take 1 year to be doubled. If the GR = 26.56% then it will take 2.71 year to be doubled. Bibliography: Statistical Techniques in Business Economics -by Lind, Marchal, Wathen Business Statistics –by Gupta Gupta www.mhhe.com The lectures of our honorable course teacher. Research Papers on Time series analysisHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows EssayIncorporating Risk and Uncertainty Factor in CapitalThe Fifth HorsemanResearch Process Part OneInfluences of Socio-Economic Status of Married MalesThe Project Managment Office SystemPETSTEL analysis of IndiaMoral and Ethical Issues in Hiring New EmployeesDefinition of Export QuotasBionic Assembly System: A New Concept of Self

The Conifer Killer Tree Diseases

The Conifer Killer Tree Diseases There are virulent diseases that attack coniferous trees which ultimately cause death or devalue a tree in the urban landscape and rural forest to the point where they need to be cut. Five of the most malignant diseases have been suggested by foresters and landowners at Abouts Forestry Forum. I have ranked these diseases according to their ability to cause aesthetic and commercial damage. Here they are: #1 - Armillaria Root Disease: The disease attacks both hardwoods and softwoods and can kill shrubs, vines, and forbs in every state in the United States. It is pervasive in North America, commercially destructive and is my pick for the worst disease.The Armillaria sp. can kill trees that are already weakened by competition, other pests, or climatic factors. The fungi also infect healthy trees, either killing them outright or predisposing them to attacks by other fungi or insects.More on Armillaria Root Disease. #2 - Diplodia Blight of Pines: This disease attacks pines and is most damaging to plantings of both exotic and native pine species in 30 Eastern and Central States. The fungus is seldom found in natural pine stands.  Diplodia pinea kills current-year shoots, major branches, and ultimately entire trees. The effects of this disease are most severe in landscape, windbreak, and park plantings. Symptoms are brown, stunted new shoots with short, brown needles.More on Diplodia Blight of Pines .​​ #3 - White Pine Blister Rust:​ The disease attacks pines with 5 needles per fascicle. That includes Eastern and Western white pine, sugar pine and limber pine. Seedlings are in greatest danger.  Cronartium ribicolais a rust fungus and can only be infected by basidiospores produced on Ribes (current and gooseberry) plants. It is native to Asia but was introduced to North America. It has invaded most white pine areas and is still making progress into the Southwest and into southern California.More on White Pine Blister Rust. #4 - Annosus Root Rot: The disease is a rot of conifers in many temperate parts of the world. The decay, called annosus root rot, often kills conifers. It occurs over much of the Eastern U.S. and is very common in the South.The fungus,Fomes annosus, usually enters by infecting freshly cut stump surfaces. That makes annosus root rot a problem in thinned pine plantations. The fungus produces conks that form at the root collar on roots of living or dead trees and on stumps or on slash. More on Annosus Root Rot. #5 - Fusiform Rust of Southern Pines: This disease causes death within five years of a trees life if a stem infection occurs. Mortality is heaviest on trees less than 10 years old. Millions of dollars are lost annually to timber growers because of the disease. The fungus Cronartium fusiforme requires an alternate host to complete its life cycle. Part of the cycle is spent in the living tissue of pine stems and branches, and the remainder in the green leaves of several species of oak. More on Fusiform Rust of Southern Pines.

Everyday Use by Alice Walker Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Everyday Use by Alice Walker - Essay Example However, her hopes are dashed when Dee returns with different world views and opinions about her heritage. Walker develops the theme of the meaning of heritage through the plot when Dee constructs a new heritage for herself after being angered by the oppression she feels exists in her family. Dee’s character is seen to have rejected her family legacy by giving herself a new name which she believes truthfully represents her African heritage. Dee’s renaming is the author’s way of trying to connect the past and indicates the flexible nature of identity. Walker does not mention Mama’s real name nor does he explain the foundation of Maggie’s name and this is meant to depict their unchanging and strong ties to their heritage and family legacy. The lack of name changing by the two characters shows that their identities are stable. Dee’s name changing reflects on her lack of belief in her true heritage as she believes that her name represents the fam ily oppressors, and views it as racist. Walker uses Dee’s character to portray the many confusing ideas that many African Americans have about their true heritage. Dee is seen not to truly understand the meaning of being African and all her actions to look African are viewed as meaningless. She differs greatly from her sister Maggie when she arrives from college and wants to possess some family quilt heirlooms. Dee does not seem to see the quilts as useful and would prefer to use them as artifacts to be used as decorations to represent a time that is long lost and from the past. Mama and Dee, however, view the quilts as very important in the family and believe that the quilts represent the presence of those that made and used the quilts. They see the quilts to be true tokens of their family origin and heritage as opposed to foreign and impersonal objects. The conflict between the three women intensifies when Mama chooses Maggie to be the one to own the quilts, as she believes that she will treat them with respect by using them in the way they were intended to be used. The theme of the diverse power of education is developed by the author through the depiction of how Dee’s achievement of higher education proves to be more divisive to the family’s relationship. Dee’s character is used by the author to show how education can change one’s view of heritage and culture. The education that Dee has received has alienated her from her family and she views her family home to be strange. Family values have been replaced by arrogant ideals and a loss of identity and heritage that only family can provide. Walker uses Dee’s character to show how education can influence an individual’s view of the life that they live. Dee’s education has caused her to have a different view on heritage and family legacy therefore causing her to disrespect anything but her own view. Walker uses the characters to depict how education, or t he lack of, is harmful. Due to her ignorance and lack of education, Maggie is seen to have hampered her achievement of self fulfillment. She is portrayed as one who has accepted the circumstances of her protected life and one who does what they are told. Walker uses the yard as a symbol to represent an area devoid of the short comings and regrets that fill Mama’s life. The yard appears in the beginning of the narrative as it is being thoroughly prepared for Dee’s arrival form college. The yard is used as a symbol that represents freedom and the lack of

Q8 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 1

Q8 - Essay Example e effective in achieving the desired objectives of effectiveness; rather resolving a conflict at the organizational level where the knowledge to address the conflict is available, is likely to be more effective. In order to address the performance issues and large costs associated with reforming and refining systems development projects, a study carried out by Patnayakuni et al (2006) proposes a knowledge management system perspective in order to manage both tacit and explicit knowledge in the process of systems development. Supply chain management and inter-organisational system development techniques have also been used by large companies in order to develop their efficiency. Assessing the same techniques in the case of small and medium sized enterprises however, Morrell and Ezingeard (2002) have concluded that while such enterprises may gain significant benefits through the application of supply chain management and inter-organizational system development techniques, in practice they do not do so because there is a culturally rooted lack of vision and awareness, which are limiting the extent to which such techniques are applied and benefits realized. These methods may nevertheless offer excellent opportunities to develop efficient methods to improve inter organizational performance. The most important aspect however, would be to develop effective systems of knowledge management. The major objective would be to keep department leaders apprised of developments occurring within the organization. As Patnayukuni et al (2006) have highlighted, this would involve the effective use of both tacit and explicit knowledge, but more importantly, ensuring that department heads are able to gain access to and be aware of such knowledge through the development of an effective system to communicate information to all department heads. It is effective integration within an organization that is therefore likely to be beneficial in the adoption of a corporate wide system for